Comments on: SMALL BUSINESS http://www.hillarynme.com . . . thinking out loud about politics, the media, & the Constitution Fri, 20 Jan 2012 18:10:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: sandstone http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22655 sandstone Sat, 18 Sep 2010 17:45:26 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22655 Edith: Sorry it took so long getting back to you ... trying to survive as a small business owner in this onerous Obama economy is tough ... had to really be business focused in the last two weeks! As for \"free trade\" the way it has been practiced by our US diplomatic trade groups over the years, it is little more than a joke. I want real business people negotiating these treaties ... not the career bureaucrats who bungle our trade interests EVERY TIME! Edith:

Sorry it took so long getting back to you … trying to survive as a small business owner in this onerous Obama economy is tough … had to really be business focused in the last two weeks!

As for \”free trade\” the way it has been practiced by our US diplomatic trade groups over the years, it is little more than a joke.

I want real business people negotiating these treaties … not the career bureaucrats who bungle our trade interests EVERY TIME!

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22583 EdithH Mon, 30 Aug 2010 02:00:17 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22583 Free Trade Rev 2.0 is that comparative advantage may not be the only variable acting in trade and maybe Free Trade was oversold and may not be a win/win in every circumstance and that is why the way the public experiences it is out of sync with the promise. This hasn't filtered down to the media or even most of academia yet. It will do so slowly becausee they fear that if the public catches on there will be a populist groundswell, an overreaction that will be almost as damaging. BTW, I am not suggesting there was a conspiracy. I have no doubt that most of the promoters really sincerly believed in Freetrade as a great wonder and path to universal happiness and prosperity. It is human fallability, gullability, and hubris in action. They believed because they needed to. Free Trade Rev 2.0 is that comparative advantage may not be the only variable acting in trade and maybe Free Trade was oversold and may not be a win/win in every circumstance and that is why the way the public experiences it is out of sync with the promise. This hasn't filtered down to the media or even most of academia yet. It will do so slowly becausee they fear that if the public catches on there will be a populist groundswell, an overreaction that will be almost as damaging. BTW, I am not suggesting there was a conspiracy. I have no doubt that most of the promoters really sincerly believed in Freetrade as a great wonder and path to universal happiness and prosperity. It is human fallability, gullability, and hubris in action. They believed because they needed to.

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22582 EdithH Mon, 30 Aug 2010 01:57:42 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22582 "Yet concern is rising that the gains from free trade may increasingly be going to a small group at the top. For the vast majority of Americans, Dartmouth's Slaughter points out, income growth has all but disappeared in recent years. And it's not just the low-skilled who are getting slammed. Inflation-adjusted earnings have fallen in every educational category other than the 4% who hold doctorates or professional degrees. Such numbers, Slaughter argues, suggest the share of Americans who aren't included in the gains from trade may be very big. Blinder warns the pain may just be starting. He estimates that eventually up to 40 million service jobs in the U.S. could face competition from workers in India and other low-wage nations. That's more than a quarter of the 140 million employed in the U.S. today. Many of the newly vulnerable will be in skilled fields, such as accounting or research—jobs U.S. companies will be able to move offshore in ever greater numbers. "It will be a messy process of adjustment, with a lot of victims along the way," Blinder says. "Yet concern is rising that the gains from free trade may increasingly be going to a small group at the top. For the vast majority of Americans, Dartmouth's Slaughter points out, income growth has all but disappeared in recent years. And it's not just the low-skilled who are getting slammed. Inflation-adjusted earnings have fallen in every educational category other than the 4% who hold doctorates or professional degrees. Such numbers, Slaughter argues, suggest the share of Americans who aren't included in the gains from trade may be very big. Blinder warns the pain may just be starting. He estimates that eventually up to 40 million service jobs in the U.S. could face competition from workers in India and other low-wage nations. That's more than a quarter of the 140 million employed in the U.S. today. Many of the newly vulnerable will be in skilled fields, such as accounting or research—jobs U.S. companies will be able to move offshore in ever greater numbers. "It will be a messy process of adjustment, with a lot of victims along the way," Blinder says.

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22581 EdithH Mon, 30 Aug 2010 01:56:08 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22581 What I worry about is that the credit liquidity crisis and the housing meltdown get all the attention. Not that they aren't corrosive, damaging, and worse, reached into every corner of society, but they are only part of the problem. I see them as gasoline on the fire of America's industrial decline, accelerating it, exacerbating it and making it harder to get any traction. I found a reference to HRC's efforts; she is the one of the few public figures who has attempted to address the consequences of free trade. Thought you might be interested: What I worry about is that the credit liquidity crisis and the housing meltdown get all the attention. Not that they aren't corrosive, damaging, and worse, reached into every corner of society, but they are only part of the problem. I see them as gasoline on the fire of America's industrial decline, accelerating it, exacerbating it and making it harder to get any traction.
I found a reference to HRC's efforts; she is the one of the few public figures who has attempted to address the consequences of free trade. Thought you might be interested:

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22571 EdithH Wed, 25 Aug 2010 11:48:46 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22571 The American economy is not a singular, integrated, cohesive, domestic economy and hasn't been for 20+ years. It is not that they are venal,just trapped in a time warp. They are lock step with the FreeTrade interests and dare not defy the herd. In fact academic economists, including Krugman, know the downside of globalization but it is not discussed publicly for fear that the public will over react.. The American economy is not a singular, integrated, cohesive, domestic economy and hasn't been for 20+ years. It is not that they are venal,just trapped in a time warp. They are lock step with the FreeTrade interests and dare not defy the herd. In fact academic economists, including Krugman, know the downside of globalization but it is not discussed publicly for fear that the public will over react..

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22570 EdithH Wed, 25 Aug 2010 11:47:33 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22570 "So here's more evidence that our stimulus programs don't work for you--unless, of course, you're a Chinese enterprise". Last sentence from an August 20th article in Forbes, by Gordon G. Chang, who writes a weekly column. This consequence applies to some of the general income tax cuts as well. Although I have suggested for months that the stimulus benefitted emerging (low cost production economies) more than America, I was focused on consumer goods . But what I didn't know was that , in addition, Chinese steel was used in some of the infrastructure projects financed by the stimulus. Why bother, why didn't the USA just write a check to the China (Indonesia, Mexico, India). This underscores just how naive and out of touch the political class is when it comes to the "New Economic Reality". "So here's more evidence that our stimulus programs don't work for you–unless, of course, you're a Chinese enterprise". Last sentence from an August 20th article in Forbes, by Gordon G. Chang, who writes a weekly column.
This consequence applies to some of the general income tax cuts as well. Although I have suggested for months that the stimulus benefitted emerging (low cost production economies) more than America, I was focused on consumer goods . But what I didn't know was that , in addition, Chinese steel was used in some of the infrastructure projects financed by the stimulus. Why bother, why didn't the USA just write a check to the China (Indonesia, Mexico, India). This underscores just how naive and out of touch the political class is when it comes to the "New Economic Reality".

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22569 EdithH Tue, 24 Aug 2010 13:46:52 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22569 6. Industries where America enjoys significant technological superiority tied to local labor pools or educational institutions, a rapidly-shrinking category. 7. Owning capital. Although not really a job, it's at least an occupation, and so long as America maintains a political consensus that rules out significant expropriation of capital, owners of capital gain from consuming cheaper labor and lose nothing. The problem is, this isn't enough. In particular, it isn't a high enough number of high-wage jobs, as most, though obviously not all, of the jobs in these seven categories are relatively low-paid. And it sure isn't enough to support the government of the United States or the coming retirement of baby boomers (79M over the next 20 years) . 6. Industries where America enjoys significant technological superiority tied to local labor pools or educational institutions, a rapidly-shrinking category.
7. Owning capital. Although not really a job, it's at least an occupation, and so long as America maintains a political consensus that rules out significant expropriation of capital, owners of capital gain from consuming cheaper labor and lose nothing.

The problem is, this isn't enough. In particular, it isn't a high enough number of high-wage jobs, as most, though obviously not all, of the jobs in these seven categories are relatively low-paid. And it sure isn't enough to support the government of the United States or the coming retirement of baby boomers (79M over the next 20 years) .

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22568 EdithH Tue, 24 Aug 2010 13:45:34 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22568 Basically, there is not much left of the American economy that is invulnerable to offshoring. 1. Those services that must be performed in person: cooking, policing, bagging groceries, teaching school, prostitution, and working for the government etc. 2. Those activities, like construction, that are performed on physical objects too large or heavy to be economically shipped from abroad if demand ever returns.. 3. Those activities, like agriculture, mining, and transportation, that are performed on, or relative to, objects fixed in place. 4. Those activities, like the practice of law or advertising, that depend upon peculiarly American knowledge that foreigners don’t have. But even this is rapidly breaking down as law firms, for example, start to offshore work. 5. Activities of government impinging upon sovereign power, like the military, or democratic legitimacy, like Congress. But given our use of mercenaries (sorry, “civilian security contractors”) in Iraq, clearly this can be nibbled away at in surprising ways. Basically, there is not much left of the American economy that is invulnerable to offshoring.
1. Those services that must be performed in person: cooking, policing, bagging groceries, teaching school, prostitution, and working for the government etc.
2. Those activities, like construction, that are performed on physical objects too large or heavy to be economically shipped from abroad if demand ever returns..
3. Those activities, like agriculture, mining, and transportation, that are performed on, or relative to, objects fixed in place.
4. Those activities, like the practice of law or advertising, that depend upon peculiarly American knowledge that foreigners don’t have. But even this is rapidly breaking down as law firms, for example, start to offshore work.
5. Activities of government impinging upon sovereign power, like the military, or democratic legitimacy, like Congress. But given our use of mercenaries (sorry, “civilian security contractors”) in Iraq, clearly this can be nibbled away at in surprising ways.

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22567 EdithH Tue, 24 Aug 2010 13:33:13 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22567 "The problem is, as is intuitively obvious to any laid-off factory worker who has contemplated the cheap knick-knacks on sale at Wal-Mart, that the drop in cost of living never matches the drop in wages. Like many free-trade arguments, it is qualitatively true but quantitatively false. " Bottom line, people would rather have decent jobs. "As a result, the cozy acquiescence of a majority of Americans in letting free trade destroy American wages sector-by-sector is going to end. The dividing line between the winners and the losers, is dramaticly shirfting as the proportion of of loosers explodes and begins to outnumber the few winners." Is this what's going on with HR4692. Pols have begun to detect the shift in the winds. "The problem is, as is intuitively obvious to any laid-off factory worker who has contemplated the cheap knick-knacks on sale at Wal-Mart, that the drop in cost of living never matches the drop in wages. Like many free-trade arguments, it is qualitatively true but quantitatively false. "
Bottom line, people would rather have decent jobs.
"As a result, the cozy acquiescence of a majority of Americans in letting free trade destroy American wages sector-by-sector is going to end. The dividing line between the winners and the losers, is dramaticly shirfting as the proportion of of loosers explodes and begins to outnumber the few winners."
Is this what's going on with HR4692. Pols have begun to detect the shift in the winds.

]]> By: EdithH http://www.hillarynme.com/for-business-women-only/comment-page-1/#comment-22566 EdithH Tue, 24 Aug 2010 13:31:39 +0000 http://hillarynme.wordpress.com/?page_id=1158#comment-22566 I have come across a writer who seems to be channeling me except he is a pro and has been arguing the case for years. His name is Ian Fletcher and he has pointed out that the doctrinaire Free Trade coaltion may be falling apart because the theory does not match up with the way we the people experience FreeTrade. See his website for the article: " The Coming End of the Free Trade Coalition " or "Things Fall Apart" "Only Manufacturing workers were supposed to suffer from the competition of cheap foreign labor, everyone else was supposed to enjoy the cheap foreign goods. Everone is happy and then EVERYONE begins to suffer the consequences of a depleted industrial base." Most important statement follows: "The reducto ad absurdum of the Free Trade arguement is that if 90% or even 100% of the population is impoverished by competition with cheap labor, we will still be better off because goods will be cheaper" I have come across a writer who seems to be channeling me except he is a pro and has been arguing the case for years. His name is Ian Fletcher and he has pointed out that the doctrinaire Free Trade coaltion may be falling apart because the theory does not match up with the way we the people experience FreeTrade. See his website for the article: " The Coming End of the Free Trade Coalition " or "Things Fall Apart"
"Only Manufacturing workers were supposed to suffer from the competition of cheap foreign labor, everyone else was supposed to enjoy the cheap foreign goods. Everone is happy and then EVERYONE begins to suffer the consequences of a depleted industrial base."

Most important statement follows:
"The reducto ad absurdum of the Free Trade arguement is that if 90% or even 100% of the population is impoverished by competition with cheap labor, we will still be better off because goods will be cheaper"

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